It is unlikely that Italy will jump - it cannot afford to and the likelihood would be that the Lira, the Millelira, more like, will be worthless and the Euro would operate as a de facto second currency...not that I have anything against multiple currencies, mind. In fact the fate of the Italians shows that having multiple currencies around would help to ensure Governments keep their printing presses silent unless they need to replace worn out notes or keep pace with economic expansion to prevent deflationary pressures at bay.
It is unlikely that Italy will be kicked out, either. The preening peacocks of the EU would not want to have that happen. Italy, for all its faults, is no small ravioli in economic terms. One of the largest economies in the world, in fact, and not without good reason.
Nope, my guess is that Italy will be subjected to a humiliation. It's Treasury will be disenfranchised and forced to hand over the keys to the cookie jar. No more bond issues without ECB say so, for example. It will remove one of the last aspects of Sovereignty, that of monetary policy, even under the Euro. If it happens, Italy will become truly a province of the Empire. The irony in this happening to Italy of all countries, given the EU and its DNA, is immense.
Such an event will be a warning to all the other Treasuries in the
Empire Union. I suspect that behind the scenes the ECB and their cronies will clamp shackles around the ankles of all the Finance Ministers and tug the chain to make sure they know who is boss. Italy will be in a Cangue for all to see, pour encourager les autres, but the de facto situation will be the same for all members. Loss of fiscal sovereignty, as if they had much to start with.
I hope this happens soon and before Gordon Brown gets any more ideas about joining this rancid clique that is the Eurozone, but even then I doubt it will bother the Marxist one jot. For if The Great Protector brings the UK into the Euro, he, personally, will not suffer. No, quite the reverse. He will get a very nice role, even head of the ECB, for his pains. He will be safe, secure and comfy right into retirement and beyond.