Roger is in Ealing Southall, so I get to see the current bye-election at first hand.
First we had the municipal elections in 2006 which saw the London Borough of Ealing switch back to Conservative control after a very long run of Labour.
During this bye-election, there have been a spate of defections by councillors from Labour to Conservative, mostly in the Southall part of Ealing. I suspect that the biggest pain is being felt not by the Labour group, but by the LibDems, who must be wondering, "if people do jump, why not to us?".
I suspect the shifts are in part driven by the need for people to cleave to the winner. Tony Lit, the Conservative candidate appears the most polished and is well known as an individual in his own right in the Asian community of the Southall section of the Constituency. He has the best plumage.
Frankly, I have always wondered why Hindus and Sikhs vote Labour - one would think they are more Conservative. I definitely think many would like a Libertarian party.